Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA22068
SIGNAL Dentifrice Anti-Caries - 120 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
68
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
9
≈ 12.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-24
AAAAA22068
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 39 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SIGNAL Dentifrice Anti-Caries - 120 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1211 days of history, 37 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.05 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 5.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 39.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 520 |