Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAA22000
Ultra Doux - Shampoing purification et brillance Charbon et Nigelle pour cheveux gras 200ml
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-80.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
57
≈ 63.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-15
AAAAA22000
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 49 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ultra Doux - Shampoing purification et brillance Charbon et Nigelle pour cheveux gras 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 57 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1106 days of history, 45 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 13.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 48.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 951 |