Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21967
L'Oréal Paris Elsève Dream Long - Shampoing cheveux longs - Huile de ricin - 400 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
20
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
17
≈ 13.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-23
AAAAA21967
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 62 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Paris Elsève Dream Long - Shampoing cheveux longs - Huile de ricin - 400 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1113 days of history, 105 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.64 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 6 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 62.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |