Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21955
L'Oréal Elsève - Huile Extraordinaire JOJOBA - Shampooing nutrition cheveux trés secs 400ML
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 35.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
76
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
5
≈ 2.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAA21955
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 139 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
L'Oréal Elsève - Huile Extraordinaire JOJOBA - Shampooing nutrition cheveux trés secs 400ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -35.7% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1099 days of history, 176 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.26 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 62.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 139.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.3K |