Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21895
Vaseline Lotion Even Tone - 200 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
2
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-24
AAAAA21895
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 107 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vaseline Lotion Even Tone - 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, stable demand · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1225 days of history, 128 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 37.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 107.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.8K |