Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21891
Vaseline Gelée au Beurre de Cacao - 100 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 400.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
284
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
9
≈ 4.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-22
AAAAA21891
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 126 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vaseline Gelée au Beurre de Cacao - 100 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +400.0% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1239 days of history, 101 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.77 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 126.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |