Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21891
Vaseline Gelée au Beurre de Cacao - 100 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-56.2%
vs same 4w last year (16 units)
Current stock
22
≈ 10.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAA21891
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 122 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vaseline Gelée au Beurre de Cacao - 100 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +40.0% · on-hand 22 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1127 days of history, 174 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.83 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 122.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |