Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21891
Vaseline Gelée au Beurre de Cacao - 100 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 70.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
219
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-21
AAAAA21891
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 137 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vaseline Gelée au Beurre de Cacao - 100 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -70.6% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1176 days of history, 185 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.77 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 63.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 137.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |