Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21877
SkinActive - Eau micellaire peaux sensibles 700ml
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
21
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 0.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAA21877
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SkinActive - Eau micellaire peaux sensibles 700ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, stable demand · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1176 days of history, 258 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 19.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 67.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.4K |