Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21877
SkinActive - Eau micellaire peaux sensibles 700ml
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 26.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-45.0%
vs same 4w last year (20 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 75
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAA21877
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SkinActive - Eau micellaire peaux sensibles 700ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -26.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1120 days of history, 252 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 36.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 110.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.3K |