Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21875
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA MEN - 75ml - Non gras - Vitamine E - Tous types de peau
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▲ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+20.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
73
≈ 31.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAA21875
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 124 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA MEN - 75ml - Non gras - Vitamine E - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending up +50.0% · on-hand 73 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1155 days of history, 135 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 36.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 123.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |