Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21875
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA MEN - 75ml - Non gras - Vitamine E - Tous types de peau
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▲ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
108
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
49
≈ 21.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAAAA21875
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 93 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème de soin hydratante - NIVEA MEN - 75ml - Non gras - Vitamine E - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending up +20.0% · on-hand 49 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1267 days of history, 121 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 26.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 9.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |