Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21862
SkinActive - Sérum Fast Bright à la vitamine C booster d'éclat pour teint terne 30ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
12
≈ 3.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 90
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-18
AAAAA21862
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SkinActive - Sérum Fast Bright à la vitamine C booster d'éclat pour teint terne 30ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 12 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1302 days of history, 149 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 18.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 109.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.8K |