Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA21044
Vichy Homme DÉODORANT CLINICAL CONTROL 96H | Tous types de peau | 50ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
37
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 111
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-23
AAAAA21044
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vichy Homme DÉODORANT CLINICAL CONTROL 96H | Tous types de peau | 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 44 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1274 days of history, 34 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 11.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.9K |