Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA18266
Lingettes - Gilbert - B70 - Biodégradables - Sans parfum - Hypoallergéniques
longtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 81.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+33.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
110
≈ 65.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAA18266
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lingettes - Gilbert - B70 - Biodégradables - Sans parfum - Hypoallergéniques · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -81.8% · on-hand 110 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (994 days of history, 64 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 22.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |