Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA18201
ORAL-B BROSSE À DENTS NOIR ULTRATHIN SENSITIVE
longtail
1P + 3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▲ 300.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
159
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
89
≈ 193.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-08
AAAAA18201
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 39 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ORAL-B BROSSE À DENTS NOIR ULTRATHIN SENSITIVE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending up +300.0% · on-hand 89 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1239 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.53 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 38.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 741 |