Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA17835
Cétaphil - Crème hydratante haute tolérance - 100 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 75.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 122
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-10
AAAAA17835
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 49 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cétaphil - Crème hydratante haute tolérance - 100 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -75.0% · on-hand 108 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1225 days of history, 81 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 10.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 49.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.0K |