Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA17799
NaturEsoin Stick Labial Teinté - 3,35 G
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-94.7%
vs same 4w last year (38 units)
Current stock
267
≈ 74.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 8
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAA17799
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NaturEsoin Stick Labial Teinté - 3,35 G · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 267 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1113 days of history, 147 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.0K |