Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA17764
Dwhite Crème Solaire Invisible Spf50+ 50ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▲ 12.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-66.0%
vs same 4w last year (53 units)
Current stock
247
≈ 83.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 160
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAA17764
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Dwhite Crème Solaire Invisible Spf50+ 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending up +12.5% · on-hand 247 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1169 days of history, 153 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 41.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 129.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.7K |