Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA17708
CeraVe crème hydratante visage SPF50 peaux normales à sèches | 52ml
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 73.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
87
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
2
≈ 0.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 104
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAA17708
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 305 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CeraVe crème hydratante visage SPF50 peaux normales à sèches | 52ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -73.7% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1197 days of history, 222 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.95 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 23.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 129.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 50.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 305.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 31.7K |