Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA17708
CeraVe crème hydratante visage SPF50 peaux normales à sèches | 52ml
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▲ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-10.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 108
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
AAAAA17708
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 183 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CeraVe crème hydratante visage SPF50 peaux normales à sèches | 52ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending up +80.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1141 days of history, 251 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.93 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 43.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 52.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 182.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.7K |