Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAA04363
Pichet Luminarc Octime avec couvercle 1,6 L
longtail
3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
Last 4 weeks demand
27
▲ 440.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
30
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
1
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AAAAA04363
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 59 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pichet Luminarc Octime avec couvercle 1,6 L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 27 units, trending up +440.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (812 days of history, 52 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.11 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 27 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 6.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 59.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |