Demand Forecast

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NIVEA Déodorant Bille Pearl & Beauty - Pour femme
SKU · 4005808837359

NIVEA Déodorant Bille Pearl & Beauty - Pour femme

longtail 3P CORPS ET VISAGE
Open on marjanemall.ma

Last 4 weeks demand

1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w

Year-over-year

-94.4%
vs same 4w last year (18 units)

Current stock

80
≈ 52.3 weeks of cover

Unit price

MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-03-18

4005808837359

History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU. Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 130 units.
Actual Forecast p50 (expected) Forecast p95 (upper bound)

Price history

Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?

NIVEA Déodorant Bille Pearl & Beauty - Pour femme · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 80 units

Signals the model saw

  • Cohort: longtail (1092 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
  • Volatility (CV): 0.88 — moderate
  • Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
  • Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
  • Calendar events firing in forecast window: none

Model output

Realistic (p50) — next week2.0 units
Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks8.4 units
Realistic (p50) — next 3 months29.8 units
Optimistic (p95) — next week7.9 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target)35.0 units
Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target)129.6 units
Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline)2.3
Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months MAD 3.4K