Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · 4005808816057
Déo impact plus de 48h 201 ml NIVEA MEN
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
114
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 21
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-12
4005808816057
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déo impact plus de 48h 201 ml NIVEA MEN · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 114 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1197 days of history, 97 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 3.03 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 55.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 144.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |